Week 5 Start/Sit: Everybody else!

Posted: October 4, 2014 in Start/Sit
Tags: , ,

As promised, here are my Week 5 Start/Sit recommendations. Thursday night went pretty well for my picks, as did last weekend for my Week 4 picks (I’m going to keep reminding you because it was literally the best week I’ve ever had in predicting fantasy football). Read along to find out who to put in your lineup and who to swap out. Unless you want to lose your matchup, of course, then stop here and tweet @waiverwagon about how ridiculous my picks are.

Bears @ Panthers

Matt Forte, RB
What in the world happened to Carolina’s run D? This is getting a bit outrageous. Is this Earth? Here’s the deal, Carolina already has problems defending the run this year, but guess what they struggled with the most last year? Yep, pass-catching out of the backfield. Oy. Big game coming for Matt, here. I’m calling 125 yards and 2 TDs.
Martellus Bennett, TE
Guess what else Carolina can’t stop, dating back to last year? Yup, Tight Ends. Bennett has been on an absolute tear this year and has the perfect matchup to allow that to continue. Get him in your lineup and stop feeling so bad about waiting on a Tight End in your draft!

Alshon Jeffrey, WR
Yes, he scored last week, but what else did he do? Right. Nothing. Anyways, Marshall is back this week and I think he will get the lion’s share of whatever targets Jay Cutler feels like making when he’s not handing off to a defense-gouging Matt Forte.

Kelvin Benjamin, WR
This kid is absolutely unbelievable. He makes the most incredible catches and will continue to terrorize DBs in every game he plays. Don’t ever take him out of your lineup again. Not even in week 12. I wouldn’t be surprised to see 150 yards and 2 TDs from him this week.
Greg Olsen, TE
Chicago is quite generous to pass-catchers and Greg Olsen ALWAYS finds ways to get open. I think he has his best game of the season this week, against his former team.

Cam Newton, QB
He’s getting close, but he’s not quite ready yet. Oh, and he has a defensive lineman at RT. Give him one more week and I think he starts running again. This will not be that week. 

Browns @ Titans

Miles Austin, WR
Stop laughing. Ok, you ready? *Sigh* Now are you ready? Good. Austin is catching touchdowns. I don’t know if you knew this. Also, touchdowns are usually worth 6 points in real life and in fantasy. If you put all of that information into a common core math problem, you get a very long-winded and roundabout answer. So don’t put it into a common core math problem and just start him.
Andrew Hawkins, WR
The Baby Hawk strikes again! Tennessee has a good defense when it comes to passing yards per game. Tennessee does not have a good defense when it comes to allowing points. Hawkins has been targeted 2.6 million times so far this season and I expect that to continue. Even in .5 PPR, that’s still 1.3 million points if he catches each one.

Ben Tate, RB
The Titans have a solid pass defense. Apparently it’s because they completely ignore running backs. Still, Tate is fresh off an injury and has two other more-than-capable RBs eager to cut into his carries. I think he needs one more week to recover.

Delanie Walker, TE
Cleveland likes to give up passing yards in bunches (good for 27th best [worst?] in the league). Also, Delanie Walker is a man-beast. Start him this week and enjoy.
Kendall Wright, WR
He’s still getting plenty of targets (30 in 4 games) and he’s converting 63% of those into receptions. This may be a back and forth game and I think he gets plenty of looks. 

Shonne Greene, RB

Greene’s losing touches and his coaches are bragging on his backup. Leave him on your bench this week. Or cut him. It’s your world. 

Rams @ Eagles

Brian Quick, WR

Targets? Check. Receptions? Check. TDs? Finally, check. Quick got in the end zone last week against Dallas and figures to do it again this week against a soft Philly pass D.
Austin Davis, QB
Meet your new St. Louis Rams starting QB. He’s facing a Philly D that doesn’t stop anybody (23rd overall against the pass). Davis has looked pretty steady so far and I think that continues this week. If you need a QB, I’d roll with him.

Zac Stacy, RB

I’m not saying he’ll have a bad game, it’s just that I think Philly gets up quick and the Rams have to play catch-up. Stacy could end up with a cheapie goal line TD here, but if you have better options, I’d lean that way. In other words, this is why I do Start/Sit questions on the weekends. Winky face. 

Jeremy Maclin, WR

St. Louis actually has a good pass defense, but it’s partially due to the fact that everybody just runs on them. This recommendation is less about the defense and more about the player, though. He has 3 TDs through 4 games and looks GOOD in Chip Kelly’s up-tempo offense. 
Darren Sproles, RB
I think LeSean McCoy may be dealing with something that we haven’t heard about yet. Even though he got the vote of confidence from his coach, color me concerned. Oh yeah, Darren Sproles! He’s awesome. He’s a boom or bust play, but I get the feeling he booms this week against that dreadful Rams run D. He’ll break a big one and end up with a better looking stat-line than actual game.

Nick Foles, QB
He looked OK against the Colts, great against the Redskins, and terrible against the 49ers. So, you know, consistency. As I mentioned earlier, St. Louis has a really good pass D (3rd best in the league), and I think Foles struggles a bit here. He’s still startable if you don’t have other options as I think he could go 250, 2 TDs, but he’ll also throw a couple of picks. 

Falcons @ Giants

Matt Ryan, QB

I rarely endorse Matt Ryan on the road, but the Giants are just so darn generous to opposing passing offenses (22nd overall), that I just can’t get away from him. I don’t see him setting the world on fire, but 300 yards and a couple of TDs is not out of the question. 
Julio Jones, WR
If you read the excerpt before (and if you didn’t, you either don’t have Matt Ryan, you only have Julio Jones, or you’re my mom looking for something random to tell me “good job” on. Thanks, mom.), you’ll notice that the Giants’ pass defense is wretched and Matt Ryan will have a good day against it. So too will Julio Jones. 125 and 2 TDs.

Steven Jackson, RB

The G-Men are 10th overall in rushing yards allowed per game and SJax just doesn’t seem to be moving the chains as much as he has in years past. Obviously if you’re deciding between him and some backup RB (Hyde, Crowell, etc.) you roll with Jackson. But if you have other options, I’d go to them.

Eli Manning, QB

First of all, you start everybody against this wretched Falcon defense. Second, Eli has looked like Super Bowl Eli these last few times out and he’s getting a new toy this weekend in 1st round pick Odell Beckham. Start with confidence and expected 275+ with 3 TDs. 
Rashad Jennings, RB
Woo hoo hoo is it tasty to be a Rashad Jennings owner this week! Atlanta doesn’t have a defensive coordinator. They just take a random fan each week, put him or her in the booth and listen to them yell out “Get him! Stop him! GET HIM!” This, coupled with the fact that Jennings has turned into some kind of workhouse, bell-cow, every down back this season, makes him an automatic start. Gimme 125 total yards and 2 TDs.

Reuben Randle, WR

Gosh it’s hard to sit anybody in this matchup. It really is. I even recommend throwing backup RB Andre Williams in your FLEX spot because I think he scores, too. This is really more of a hunch than anything, coupled with the fact that Beckham is returning and will be stealing Randle’s targets. 

Bucs @ Saints

Mike Glennon, QB

I know, it’s not the sexiest pick, but this isn’t exactly the Eagles offense we’re dealing with, here. That being said, the Saints defense is pitiful and they just lost Pro Bowl safety Jarius Byrd for the year. Glennon should have a very solid day. 250+ with 3 TDs and 1 INT.
Vincent Jackson, WR
Someone has to catch all of those Glennon TD passes. Here’s your guy. VJax is the king of inconsistency but he always manages one huge game to balance out his line for the year. Here’s that game. 150+ yards and 2 TDs.

Doug Martin, RB
Martin got in the end zone last week. Woo hoo! Doesn’t matter, though. I still think he’s working his way into a timeshare each week and Rainey may go off in this game as a result. Sit him unless you don’t have better options.

Drew Brees, QB

I know, he’s an obvious start every week, but he hasn’t really looked the part this season. I think he finally breaks out in a big way this weekend. This sets up to be a vintage Brees home game with 350+ yards and 3+ TDs. Start him over everybody else in the world.
Jimmy Graham, TE
Jimmy is the best TE in the game. Maybe even in the world (no offense, CFL and NFL Europe fans). Start him with confidence and he will win you your week. I think he goes over 100 yards and scores twice.

Pierre Thomas, RB

I don’t know what in the world has happened to the PT Bruiser. He used to be so reliable and consistent and now he isn’t even involved. Who the heck is Travaris Cadet?? Anyways, PT is apparently 3rd in line for touches now so he can be completely ignored. Just pretend like you’re Sean Payton. 

Texans @ Cowboys

DeAndre Hopkins, WR

This kid is sensational. He has been getting it done all season and I see no reason for that not to continue against Dallas’s 26th ranked pass defense and depleted secondary. I think he has a career-best outing and maybe even scores twice.
Andre Johnson, WR
Remember what I said about that Dallas pass defense? Well, it’s awful. Andre hasn’t been the Andre of old, but I think he’ll look like it this week. Even with Fitzpatrick throwing it to him. 100 yards and a touch is not out of the question.

Arian Foster, RB
Is it time to retire already, Arian?  His hamstring was day-to-day, then week-to-week, and his talent is season-to-season. I can’t trust this guy and neither should you. In other news, go pick up Alfred Blue.

DeMarco Murray, RB

I’m sorry to include obvious starters this week, but sometimes people get cute and sit studs. Please don’t be one of those cutie pies and keep this man in your lineup. The Texans have a formidable defense on paper, but they’re actually 24th against the run. Start him.
Terrance Williams, WR
Romo has looked Terrance’s way early and often the last two weeks as coverage has rolled toward Dez Bryant’s side of the field. Williams has made the most of it and even caught two scores last week. Start him.

Tony Romo, QB

This is more of a hunch than anything. I think JJ Watt wreaks havoc in this game, even against Dallas’s fantastic OLine. Romo isn’t the best under pressure and I think he has an average game. I still think he tops the 200 mark and maybe even 2 TDs, which is startable if you don’t have anything else. 

Bills @ Lions

Sammy Watkins, WR
Guess who gets a new, veteran QB this week?? Sammy has seen a rise in targets for the past couple of weeks and seems to be excited about Orton behind center. I’m not as excited about Orton, but I think his presence definitely lifts the value of WRs in Buffalo. Get excited, Watkins owners.
Robert Woods, WR
Twelve (12!!) targets last week and three (3!!) receptions. Obviously, you love one of those numbers and trust that the second one will rise when the ball is actually being delivered accurately. I think Woods gets his first TD grab of the season this week and Bills fans realize that they’re actually in contention to win this division. 

CJ Spiller, RB

The Lions defense ranks 6th overall against the rush at 80ish yards per game. CJ has been pretty decent this season, but this matchup is BRUTAL and I just don’t see him finding much room to work. 

Eric Ebron, TE

Ebron scored his first TD last week (Need proof? Check out this sick grab. Also, check out my Week 4 Start/Sit column.) and I could easily see him grabbing another against this so-so Bills secondary. Gimme 50 yards and the aforementioned touch.
Golden Tate, WR
Tate went off last week to the tune of 8 catches for 116 yards. He has at least 5 catches and at least 50 yards (calm down, he’s no Antonio Brown) in each of his last 3 games and is looking like a great bet to do at least that again this week.

Joique Bell, RB
Bell suffered a concussion last week and I’m not letting him near my lineup this week. Maybe not next week, either. He’s on standby. Or sit-by, as it were.

Ravens @ Colts

Steve Smith, Sr., WR

Smitty is looking like the FA steal of the decade right now. My beloved Panthers ludicrously released him this offseason via text message. While I strongly support ending relationships over text, I cannot get behind ending professional contracts via text. Use good judgement, people. Anyway, Agent 89 is still one of the best in the game, and I think he goes off again this week in a shootout with Indy.
Joe Flacco, QB
Guess who is ranked ahead of Jay Cutler, Matt Stafford, and Ben Roethlisberger in total fantasy points in my 16-teamer? Yup, Joe Flacco. After shredding the overrated struggling Panthers D to the tune of 327 yards and 3 TDs last week, he gets a 21st ranked pass defense this week. I think it’s the 2nd verse, same as the first: 300 yards and 3 TDs.

Bernard Pierce, RB
Pierce is officially entrenched in a committee situation with Forsett looking like the best back so far. I’d avoid him this week if at all possible. 

Andrew Luck, QB

Duh. Yeah, that’s really all I’m going to write about him. Well, that too.
T.Y. Hilton, WR
Hilton has seen 6+ targets in each game with 10+ targets in 3 out of 4 games so far. Wow! He’s been kept out of the end zone thus far, but that changes this week. I think Luck hits him for a deep bomb and he tops 100 yards.

Trent Richardson, RB
Drop this guy already. I kid, I kid. Trade him for somebody, anybody else. Surely there’s an Alabama or Indianapolis fan in your league. Find him. 

Steelers @ Jaguars
Ben Roethlisberger, QB

Big Ben went off last week and gets an even easier matchup this week. Everybody throws on the Jags and they hand out 300-yard passing games like promo items at their games each week. 
Le’Veon Bell, RB
You know what else everybody does against Jacksonville? Yeah, they run crazy. Bell will have a huge week. 

For reals. 

Blake Bortles, QB
Bortles looked good last week (albeit with 2 INTs, but that’s just going to be part of his game) with his west coast passing. I think this week, his coaches trust him a bit more and he takes a couple of deep shots. If you need a QB, I’d look Blake’s way. 
Allen Hurns, WR
The Jag receiver roulette spins again and this week it lands on Allen Hurns. He’s getting plenty of targets and I think he grabs another bomb this week in garbage time.

Toby Gerhart, RB
I really hope you aren’t still starting this guy. I hate to be so negative, but he’s behind a pitiful OLine and on a team that constantly plays from behind. Nothing to see here. Move on.

Cardinals @ Broncos

Larry Fitzgerald, WR
It feels funny having to create a defense for Larry Fitzgerald, as the guy has been so automatic throughout his career. However, he has looked a bit older this year and his targets have started to drop a bit. I’d start him this week, though as Arizona figures to be playing from behind and Denver can actually be thrown on a bit. 
Michael Floyd, WR
The targets are there for sure. Also, 100 yards in 2 out of 3 games so far AND I read somewhere recently that his average yards per target were over 20. That means deep shots down the field and I think he catches one or two of those this week. Look for another 100 yard game and a TD.

Andre Ellington, RB
Denver has been so-so against the ground game this year (12th in rushing yards per game) and they’re getting last year’s leading tackler, Danny Trevathan, back in this game. I wouldn’t expect much from Andre this week. 

Emmanuel Sanders, WR

He just might be Peyton’s favorite toy this year. I just missed on him in my drafts and I’ve been kicking myself ever since. He had 15 (!!!) targets in his last game and has caught a pass for over 40 yards in EACH GAME so far this season. Please start him. Or trade him to me so I can.
Julius Thomas, TE
Arizona has a decent defense against the pass, but we’re talking about Peyton Manning here, people. You start him, you start his weapons. 

Montee Ball, RB
Ugh. Two straight BAD match ups and he looks less than awesome. The good news here, is that people might be losing patience with him. Find his owner after this treacherous game and float a solid deal out there. 

Chiefs @ 49ers

Jamaal Charles, RB
I know the 49ers defense has been the awesome, but Jamaal found his form last week and I think he carries that momentum over to this week. If you read my post last week, you’d see that I expected his yardage output to mirror his health percentage. Apparently he was 108% healthy, plus 3 TDs. I think he keeps it going against San Fran. I’ll go 85 yards and a touch.
Travis Kelce, TE
Who is this guy? He just keeps getting targets and touchdowns. So you should just keep putting him in your lineup!

Alex Smith, QB
I’m on the fence about this recommendation and wouldn’t be angry with you for ignoring it, but I just don’t really trust Alex in his return to San Fran. Sometimes emotions get involved, which is when INTs get involved. If you don’t have anybody else, throw him out there, but have a side of caution with that optimism.

Colin Kaepernick, QB 

He hasn’t thrown for a ton of yards, but you expected that when you drafted him. His rushing totals have been solid and he’s tossed multiple TDs in 2 of his 4 games this year. KC is middle of the pack in rushing yards per game and 8th overall against the pass. It just seems like a good matchup for a guy like Kap.
Frank Gore, RB
I said he looked old in last weeks Start/Sit post. Whoops! Gore responded (because I know for a fact that he reads this) with 174 total yards and a TD. While I don’t see him posting those kind of numbers again, I think he tops 85 yards with a score.

Carlos Hyde, RB

I really thought he was making a push to take over for Frank this season. However, he looked pretty rough against Philly last week with 10 carries for 26 yards. I like the carries, I vomit at the yards. C’mon, guy. I still think you stash him if you have room, but he’s not touching my lineup this week.

Jets @ Chargers

Chris Ivory, RB
He is the best Chris in this backfield and, while San Diego is ranked 9th against the run, they’re still allowing almost 100 yards per game. I can see him putting up top 15 numbers this weekend. 
Jeremy Kerley, WR
I was going to go with Eric Decker here, but he’s a game-time decision and I just can’t endorse a start in light of that information. Kerley has been getting decent targets and might score this week if one of the defensive players that Geno throws to tips a pass into his hands. 

Geno Smith, QB
Speaking of Geno Smith, please sit him. Or cut him. He’s on the wire in my 16-teamer and I suspect he’ll stay there. Vick is pushing him for PT and I think he takes over sooner instead of later. If you NEED a QB this week, go pick up Bortles. Or Austin Davis. Or anybody not named Geno Smith. Kyle Orton? 

Keenan Allen, WR
Wow! So last week was nice. I also called that breakout game (but can’t take much credit, it was Jacksonville). Allen had been leaving owners high and dry for the first few games this season due to injuries and brutal match ups. Those of us who either held on to him (or in my case, traded for him) will now begin to reap the rewards. Congratulations, fellow Allen owners!
Philip Rivers, QB
This man has absolutely been unstoppable so far this year. I shouldn’t need to tell you to start him this week. I also shouldn’t need to go back in time and tell myself to wait on QB and take him instead of Cam. Sigh. Anybody got a time machine? I’ll trade you some $FAAB for it.

Donald Brown, RB
Woof. This guy has been hot garbage so far. If he’s all you’ve got and you’re desperate for a RB, go pick up Branden Oliver and hope Brown forgets to board the plane this week.

Bengals @ Patriots

Gio Bernard, RB
Gio hasn’t produced RB1 numbers on the ground so far, but he has excelled in total yardage due to his prowess in the passing game. New England is great against the pass (1st in the league), but not as much against the run (23rd). Gio should have a pretty good day as his defense will keep Tom off the field and his offense should run through him.
AJ Green, WR
I know, I just told you that New England is #1 against the pass, but AJ is matchup proof and I think he shows out this weekend. Gimme 100+ and at least 1 TD.

Marvin Jones, WR
I know! I wanted to put him right into my lineup too! However, he got a little too excited about returning this week from a toe injury and tweaked his ankle. Sad face.

Rob Gronkowski, TE
He’s pretty much the entire New England offense now. Yeesh, what a sad state of affairs over there. 
Julian Edelman, WR
And I don’t feel good about it. He’s a WR2 and at least sees plenty of targets. That’s all I can say. 

Tom Brady, QB
People everywhere are dropping this guy. I still can’t go that far with him. I definitely think he’s a Pinestone Cowboy (I just made that up, by the way, and this post is time-stamped, so don’t steal it) for the next week or two to see how things shakeout. Ugh, Tom. Just wow. 

Seahawks @ Redskins

Marshawn Lynch, RB
Look, I don’t care what the matchup says. I don’t care who’s in line for carries behind him. I don’t care how many times I have to endorse him on this site. He’s still a frigging BEAST and will continue to be. Seattle runs their offense through him and that’s the way it should be. 100+yards and 2 TDs this week. 
Russell Wilson, QB
Lynch’s success on the ground should have Washington sticking another guy in the box early on in this game. This should set up some nice play-action calls for Wilson and that, in turn, should open up holes for Lynch. It’s football symmetry, folks, and it’s beautiful. 

Percy Harvin, WR
It’s not a talent thing, it’s a trust thing. 

Alfred Morris, RB
It’s an awful matchup, I know, but Washington will need to lean heavily on Morris this week if they want to establish any kind of rhythm on offense. I don’t see a big game coming, but I think a serviceable 50-75 totals yards and a TD is in the works.
Niles Paul, TE
Again, I don’t need to tell you about how brutal the matchup is. Paul is Washington’s leading receiver and I don’t see Seattle giving up anything over the top in this game. He could potentially be the sole recipient of all of Kirk Cousins’ passing yardage.

Kirk Cousins, QB
Just an ugly matchup (for the 3rd blurb in a row) and he looked awful against a very beatable matchup last week. Find someone else, please. Please. 

Alrighty, folks. It seems our time together has come to an end this week. Please feel free to tweet any questions to me @waiverwagon and/or leave some comments here. Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend!

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